Baccarat Probabilities

Fundamental to the success of every casino card game player is an understanding of the numbers and percentages. In Baccarat, this means knowing the probabilities and using them to gain an edge.

The beautiful thing about Baccarat probabilities is that they are easy to grasp, because only a few elements are involved. In games like Poker you need to work out several figures including pot odds and implied odds. Figuring out the odds in Blackjack can also be difficult.

That is not the case with Baccarat probabilities; here the only things you need to figure out are the percentages for the Player, Banker and Tie, and which number of decks gives the most advantage for the player.

Regardless of the variant, there are only three choices in Baccarat; Player, Banker or Tie. Breaking down the numbers, the casino edge for the Player is 1.35%, and for the Banker 1.17%. The Tie will pay out 8 to 1, because the edge here is significantly higher. Clearly the best bet is the Banker, owing to the low edge, so despite having a 5% commission, it is still the one to go with.

The Baccarat probabilities for these three elements still hold true regardless of the number of decks in used. For example, in a single deck game the odds for Player, Banker and Tie are 44.68%, 45.96% and 9.30%. In four deck games the Player probability is 44.6%, Banker 46% and 9.49% for a Tie. In a six deck game the Baccarat probabilities are, for the Player is 44.63%, for the Banker 45.87% and 9.51% for the Tie.

That is basically all there is to Baccarat probabilities. You don't need a calculator to compute all the figures; you don't even need a pen and paper. All that is necessary is for you to remember is that to win you should, as often as possible, bet on the Banker, and second, find a game that uses as few decks as possible.

Casinos are well aware of these facts, of course, so don't be surprised that not only do they take a cut from Banker wagers, but that most will employ six to eight decks per game. Looking for the proper combination of a low commission on Banker bets and a single deck game can be difficult in places like Las Vegas. Fortunately there is the Internet.

With online sites competing against each other, it's very likely that there are some that offer games utilizing fewer decks than the standard and / or low commissions, improving the Baccarat probabilities.

The differences are rather small, but they are still important because as you play more hands, the more quickly these figures will accumulate. If you only play a few games then the small numbers probably won't make much of an impact, but over time, the edge of the Banker and the one deck cards will manifest themselves in your Baaccarat profit margin.

Close